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Here are two facts about the man who will soon be President of the United States, only one of which can be true. 

Shortly before the start of World War II, Adolf Hitler decided that every German should be able to afford a car, so he created and subsidized the Kraft durch Freude (Strength through Joy) Wagen. 

Traveling through the Middle East this week, I heard unprecedented pessimism from colleagues in government and the private sector about the health of economies that are mostly dependent on the flaccid price of oil. 

‘Tis the season of prognostications in the media for 2016, but how can anyone make serious predictions in a world full of uncertainties and surprises (think Trump, Paris terror attacks, and Kobe Bryant’s retirement)? To guide my own conjecture, I looked back at 2015 for signposts and found four big ones worth mention.

A new global agreement on climate change is in the works and could be completed later this month in Paris. It’s a good thing, because epic droughts, record-breaking heat and cold waves, and killer storms have become the new normal, along with countless other examples that validate the predictions that have been made by our best scientists for decades. But pledges from national governments alone may not be sufficient to solve this global existential challenge – – they must be backed up by action.

As the world gathers in Paris to hammer out a new comprehensive agreement to tackle climate change, the success or failure of that deal will rest to a great degree on the next President of the United States. Regardless of one’s political or economic views, or scientific understanding of the topic, a lot is at stake for the world’s environment and its economy, so our next choice of President matters. Here then is a summary of the candidates “climate IQ” (focused on those most likely to win their party’s nomination based on current polls*):

I have 10 kilowatts of solar panels on the rooftop of my home in Santa Monica, California, enough to power my energy needs most of the time. Instead of selling excess power to the grid (and buying energy at night when the sun isn’t shining) I’d like to install batteries in the garage, storing enough energy in daylight to power my home when it’s dark.

As recent news focused on stories and commentary about removing the Confederate battle flag from public property, there has been a little-watched movement by secessionists of a different stripe.   

Yes, a number of leaders are calling on states to secede from the union once again, at least as it applies to the national environmental laws that are designed to protect public health and save money. I’m tempted to compare these misguided politicians to Donald Trump, because their reasoning makes no more sense than a certain New York billionaire who is running for President, but let’s just call them the Carbon Confederacy.